Arizona State University: Overview of Climate Neutrality Roadmap (2015)
Leadership Commitment
Arizona State University (ASU) has been one of the largest and fastest-growing public research universities in the nation for the past several decades. Over that time, ASU’s leadership focused on the strategic importance of climate neutrality through mission, charter, and action. In 2006, President Michael Crow became one of twelve founding signatories of the American College and University Presidents’ Climate Commitment (ACUPCC) when he committed that ASU would mitigate its entire greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions footprint by 2035.
Significant Progress
ASU made significant progress toward climate neutrality from 2004 to 2013 by implementing projects that delivered a total of 77,247 tCO2e in annual emissions reductions. This represented an average 3.3 percent reduction per year of total GHG emissions. Over that time the University built 36 LEED Gold and Platinum buildings, installed 24 megawatts of on-site solar generation, implemented energy conservation and efficiency measures on 180 buildings, and tripled bicycle and public transit use among students. If this aggressive emissions reduction rate were to have continued apace through 2035 ASU would have cut GHG emissions by 69 percent—impressive, but not enough to reach the University’s transformational climate neutrality goal.
Long-term Partnership
ASU leadership recognized that their aggressive, incremental, decarbonization approach would not meet climate neutrality goals. As a result, the University released an RFP to find a Strategic Climate Neutrality Alliance Partner that would facilitate a more transformational approach to GHG emissions reduction. Mark Wilhelm worked with three of the four teams that responded to this RFP. Ameresco was selected, executed a Master Strategic Alliance Agreement for Climate Neutrality with ASU in May 2013, and hired Mark to lead the effort.
The Climate Neutrality Master Agreement called for Ameresco to support ASU on a variety of climate neutrality projects. This unique 21-year agreement was the natural extension of the Ameresco’s 14-year energy partnership with ASU that included $262 million of energy conservation and renewable energy projects.
Climate Neutrality Roadmap
The first task of the Climate Neutrality Alliance was to develop a comprehensive GHG emissions reduction strategy, called the Climate Neutrality Roadmap (Roadmap). The Roadmap was created to serve as a companion document to ASU’s Climate Action Plan and enable ASU’s leadership to make informed decisions along the university’s path to climate neutrality. The Roadmap provided ASU with a transformational approach to reach climate neutrality targets through strategies and projects associated with building energy conservation and efficiency, infrastructure improvements, renewable energy supply, transportation, and institutional initiatives.
Roadmap Development Approach
Mark Wilhelm led a team of 30 professionals, including personnel from Ameresco and consultants from Rocky Mountain Institute, to work closely with ASU to develop the comprehensive Roadmap for the university. The process included:
• Interviews with 20 stakeholders to understand key goals, obstacles, and opportunities
• In-depth review of pertinent documentation
• Characterization of building and central plant performance load shapes
• Evaluation of university growth projections
• Development of baseline and climate neutrality modeling scenarios
• Review of data and strategies by subject matter experts (SMEs)
• Assessment of 23 million square feet of buildings, fleet, infrastructure, and supply assets
• Site visits and energy modeling of discrete buildings and plant assets
• Use of building portfolio assessment modeling and microgrid assessment modeling tools
• Development of carbon reduction strategies to address buildings, infrastructure, supply, transportation, and institutional initiatives
• Identification of discrete and bundled groups of energy conservation, efficiency, and carbon reduction projects
• Evaluation of project delivery and project financing methods
• Understanding political and regulatory obstacles and opportunities
• Evaluation and recommendations to improve the University’s organizational structure, policies, programs, and procedures to help enable aggressive project implementation
• Understanding the details of deferred maintenance and facility condition index for all assets
• Evaluation of on-site and off-site renewable energy and carbon offset project opportunities
Roadmap Deliverables
The Roadmap detailed a cost-effective path to drive ASU to achieve zero net greenhouse gas emissions for all operations by 2035 (including Scopes 1, 2, and 3 and de minimis sources). Roadmap deliverables included:
• Comprehensive GHG emissions baseline and project baseline increases through 2035
• Technical analysis and list of potential projects/carbon reduction measures (CRMs) and associated funding structures and/or investments required to meet climate goals
• Life Cycle Cost Analysis, strategic project bundling, and cost optimization projections for recommended projects, including an analysis of the why and when of proposed projects/initiatives and the who, how, and when the projects will be achieved
• Technical implementation plans for buildings, supply and infrastructure, transportation, and institutional initiatives
• Assessment and comparison of financial performance for baseline and roadmap scenarios
• Sensitivity analysis of key cost variables
• Identification of co-benefits that ASU would realize from implementing the pathway to climate neutrality outlined in the Roadmap
• Recommendations for implementing demand-side conservation and efficiency initiatives
• Recommendations for implementing supply-side initiatives at both macro- and micro-grid level
• Recommendations for implementing campus microgrids to improve performance and resilience
• Recommendations for implementing large renewable energy projects in partnership with utilities and other partners
• Recommendations to improve new building project delivery methods to ensure optimal performance
• Recommendations regarding design and construction guidelines for new and existing buildings
• Participating as a member of the Sustainable Design Advisory Committee for building projects
• Reviewing technical proposals for off-campus, energy-efficiency and carbon reduction projects submitted by potential partners
• Recommendations regarding strategic partnerships
• Recommendations for engaging the University research community
• Recommendations regarding education opportunities and ways to engage students
• Recommendations for pertinent statutory, regulatory, and policy changes
• Recommendations for specific institutional initiatives regarding organizational structure and operational policies, programs, and procedures to enable the implementation of projects
• Recommendations on funding sources and deal structures to better enable project implementation
• Recommendations to improve the Campus Metabolism dashboard and ASU’s Sustainable Initiatives Revolving Fund
• Recommendations regarding management of the Roadmap process to enable success
• Hosting a Carbon Neutrality Roadmap Summit to engage team members and other key stakeholders
Roadmap Results
In 2014, ASU spent nearly $38 million for energy, which was equal to approximately 2 percent of the university’s operating budget. When adjusted for university growth and energy price escalation, the Roadmap projected that ASU would spend a total of nearly $1.5 billion on energy by 2049 (2025 dollars – see graphics below).
The preferred Roadmap scenario was a “Best Case Mix of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy” (Roadmap Scenario or Call-to-Action Scenario). This Roadmap Scenario outlined a transformational pathway to achieve climate neutrality by 2035.
Due in part to rising energy prices, cost-effective energy efficiency, and expected decreases in the cost of renewable energy technology, the Roadmap analysis showed that pursuing climate neutrality under the Roadmap Scenario would cost less overall than continuing to rely on fossil-fuel energy under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario.
The upfront cost for ASU, largely to pay for building efficiency projects and select deep energy retrofits, was estimated to be $67 million (net present cost to ASU over first 5 years). The net present value to implement ASU’s long-term transition under the Roadmap Scenario, when compared against BAU, was projected to be $74 million – a significantly positive result. Simply put, the Climate Neutrality Roadmap showed that ASU would save money by pursuing the transformational Roadmap Scenario as compared to the BAU Scenario and achieve significant economic, social, and environmental results in addition to climate neutrality.
Resources:
ASU: “ASU achieves carbon neutrality, ranked among most sustainable universities in the world”
Published by ASU News – this article notes that ASU achieved zero greenhouse gas emissions from campus operations six years early, on June 30, 2019. The positive ROI and strategies that we identified in the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap align ASU decision makers to achieve the 2025 goal quickly. (ASU achieves carbon neutrality, ranked among most sustainable universities in the world | ASU News)
NREL: “REopt Informs ASU’s Carbon Neutrality Strategy”
A detailed project overview from NREL describing how REopt® was used to evaluate multiple pathways for achieving 25–100% reductions in ASU’s carbon emissions — covering supply-side electricity, thermal energy, storage, biogas, plus system sizing and operations. Highlights Ameresco as a key partner. (https://www.nrel.gov/reopt/projects/case-study-asu)
RMI: “In Pursuit of Climate Neutrality at Arizona State University”
From Rocky Mountain Institute—this article outlines how Ameresco and RMI co-created ASU’s implementation plan aiming for campus-wide climate neutrality by 2025 and transportation neutrality by 2035. It details baseline analyses, solar rollout, energy information systems, and financing strategies. (https://rmi.org/pursuit-climate-neutrality-arizona-state-university/)
Top 30 Lessons Learned from Climate Action Plans and Roadmaps